_By Mercy Torty

2026 would be a defining moment for the political class in Nigeria as the buildup to the General Elections sees the aspirants maneuvering and twisting to secure their party tickets to test their popularity in the elections. Peter Obi’s public declaration of leaving the relatively unpopular Labour Party, a vehicle he used to stun Nigeria’s electoral system in 2023, to join the coalition ADC has introduced a new twist to 2027.

What then are the factors that would shape the 2027 elections and provide the twists and turns that the political space in Nigeria has never witnessed? The following factors in my opinion would determine the outcome of 2027:
1 .The nature of ADC primaries.

2. The implosion in APC
3. The Donald Trump factor.
4. Bitter lessons from history.
5. The economic hardship and reality.
6. The northern alliance.
7. The gains of the Sahel states.
8. The muscling of the opposition.
9. The Obidient Movement party membership
10. The moral burden of INEC

THE NATURE OF ADC PRIMARIES:
The declaration of Peter Obi for ADC has put an end to the uncertainty the Labour Party gave to his presidential ambition and has injected a new energy for the ADC coalition. The political matrix and optics in the past days have favoured the ADC. With key officials in government in the ruling APC almost running berserk with criticism of Obi’s movement to the ADC, it is palpable that fear has gripped the ruling party in a dimension they have never known. It is not only elementary for the likes of Festus Keyamo and Daniel Bwala to spend their precious time to concoct the narrative of Obi accepting the Vice Presidential candidate slot in a party that is yet to hold its primaries, but an act of cowardice and self deceit to cry more than the bereaved. A pointer that should, “On your mandate we shall stand” be challenged in 2027, it must not be a Peter Obi on the ballot as presidential candidate. It is unarguable that every government official close to the presidency knows the path that brought them to power and know that Tinubu was roundly beaten in the 2023 presidential election and for no reason should their “nightmare” Obi return to the ballot. The political game plan of the APC would be more to stop Obi from picking the ADC ticket. That is where the primaries of the ADC becomes critical.

Primaries of the major political parties in Nigeria that have ruled Nigeria since the return to democratic government in 1999 have had their candidates emerge from heavily dollarized or “nairalized” primaries or in a worst case scenario candidates imposed on the party. This tradition has continued. The process most times present the worst of the aspirants as the candidate of the party that Nigerians sometimes were left with the option to choose between two evils. Party delegates cash out from primaries where leading aspirants break the bank to secure their votes. Competence and capacity gives way for the highest bidders.

The masses who have suffered the brunt of this style of leadership recruitment by the major political parties are appalled by the lack of integrity displayed by these parties and the total disregard for their choices. What they would expect from any party is that its candidate who would gain their trust would emerge from transparent primaries where the best emerges but not the deepest pocket.

The ADC primaries must break away from the practice of the major political parties in it style of primaries. The masses of Nigeria would be irritated by a dollarized or nairalized primaries and conclude that there is nothing good about the ADC and leave APC with the option of the “lesser evil”. The moment ADC organizes credible primaries devoid of vote buying, it would have won the trust of many Nigerians. A credible ADC primaries, will set the APC is confusion because the post primaries crisis they would desire would have been reduced to the barest minimum. Credible primaries for ADC will be a game changer.

THE IMPLOSION IN APC:
The mass defection to the APC in the long run would be more of a curse to the party than a blessing. Echoes coming from several states where the governors had convinced lawmakers and key political office holders to join them to the APC, has been their personal self preservation. Posters that flood the states only show a guaranteed reelection tickets for the president and the governors and except in a rare case like Akwa Ibom State where the guaranteed reelection tickets included the Senate President, Godswill Akpabio. The signs are obvious that the train is leaving bulk of the defectors out. What will become the fate of these politicians that were assured tickets as a surety to follow the governors? The foundational and institutional members would believe that in 2027 they deserve the tickets of the APC. The fallout of APC primaries will have a devastating effect on APC. The party is bound to implode. Several politicians of the APC would seek the last straw to survive politically. They would go all out to work against the party’s interest. The president and the governors will suffer colossal betrayal . Governors will trust the wrong people. The Wikes of the APC would emerge and drag their party to the gutters. Sadly the time between this and the general elections may be too short for the APC to recover. There are too many strange bed fellows in the current conglomerated APC . The loyalty to the president is clearly for selfish gain and not based on belief in capacity of the president. Several of these politicians cannot face crowd in their villages with police protection to tell their people to support Tinubu in 2027. Once the president cannot reciprocate the fragile loyalty with political settlements for these politicians, the London bridge will come falling down. It will be outright self deceit for anyone to think that the APC can aggregate the numerous interests that the mass defection has brought it.

THE DONALD TRUMP FACTOR:
The President of the United States, Donald Trump recently approved a gestapo move that captured the sitting president of Venezuela Nicolas Maduro in handcuffs and delivered to the US as a prize from a nursery school debate competition. Trump justified his action by dismissing the legitimacy of Maduro and said the democratic process that brought him to office was flawed. Trump is predictable and he derives pleasure from the US playing the role of the world’s police. He had described Nigeria as, “The now disgraced country” and had order military operations in Nigeria in the fight against terrorism. A Trump presidency would predictably be very intolerant to the 2027 election being rigged. Trump’s disposition doesn’t show he is in favour of the Tinubu administration. Trump is most certain to make a statement ahead of the 2027 election in Nigeria. Former president Barack Obama did in 2015 and told Nigerians to “Vote a new chapter.” Indirectly favouring the APC of Buhari over the PDP of Goodluck Jonathan. What the APC should fear most is for Trump not to ask Nigerians to, “Vote the now disgraced president out in 2027”. If Trump says, the US won’t accept a rigged election in 2027, that would be a softer landing for the APC. Just like APC in 2014, the propaganda machinary of the ADC will largely determine how Trump would view the reelection of Tinubu. At the moment the signs are not favorable for the president.

BITTER LESSONS FROM HISTORY:
The APC led government has concocted some of the worst elections in Nigeria. The broad day light rape of democracy in the 2024 Edo Governorship election and the 2023 presidential election glitch taught the opposition a brutal lesson. Nigerians woke up to the announcement of a presidential election result in the dead of night. The current ADC possess ruthless politicians drawn from the same APC stock. These politicians know what it takes to secure election results. These politicians would rather the country burn than watch their mandate stolen in 2027. The National Collation Centre would be a mere ceremony as the accurate election result will be in the possession of the ADC. Except the INEC Chairman declares the result outside the national collation centre, ADC is capable of putting men and women day and night around the INEC chairman to ensure he does not conjure any abracadabra. The lessons from elections conducted under APC is too bitter to swallow. Tinubu with the power of incumbency will not be able to stand the onslaught of the opposition. Nigeria has proven that you can only rig an election when the north is with you. In the present situation, Tinubu’s perceived unpopularity in the north signals chaos should the election be rigged in his favour.

THE ECONOMIC HARDSHIP AND REALITY:
Things are hard in Nigeria. Poverty rate is on the rise. Most Nigerians are struggling to feed. The economic policies of the Tinubu administration is suffocating the masses. The middle class is shrinking. Those who are drumming the praises of Tinubu are a tiny set who are directly or indirectly benefiting from the government. The atmosphere outside the comfort of government does not speak well. The 2027 election would be a referendum on poverty. It will be APC against impoverished Nigerians. The political class will suddenly realise that they are on their own. It will be them against the poverty that pervades the land.

THE NORTHERN ALLIANCE:
Despite former president Mohammadu Buhari’s body language in 2023 that tended to favour candidates other than Tinubu, the Northern governors led by Nasiru Elrufai insisted on a Southern candidate and mobilised support for Tinubu. The manner the APC Northern governors stormed the house of the then APC national chairman Abdullahi Adamu when the news of Ahmed Lawan as the consensus candidate came to the public, Abdullahi realized he was moving against the run of play and the northern governors were ready to call the bluff of President Buhari. It was this sort of support that Tinubu enjoyed to ride to the presidency through INEC glitch inspired result. The same cannot be said today. Some prominent Northern leaders have openly condemned Tinubu’s government. These dissenting voices in the north is increasing by the day. Tinubu’s route to the presidency in the manner that x-rayed the failure of institutions was only tolerated because the north endorsed him. In 2027 to rig Tinubu to power in the north would be a suicide mission.

THE GAINS OF THE SAHEL STATES:
Burkina Faso’s military Head of State, Ibrahim Traore leads a Sahel alliance of countries that military takeover of government have delivered better governance and welfare for its people. Burkina Faso, Niger and Mali have made military intervention in the face of failure of democratic government and credible elections fanciful. The welfare of the citizens appear better under these military leaders. Nigerians would not want to look back to the days of military rule that is far better that the civilian dictatorship that it is experiencing today. Where the credibility of our elections continue to dwindle, the people may prefer full blown military rule to the deceptive full blown civilian autocracy. Nigeria is sliding towards a feudal system of government where the political class reign as feudal lords over the impoverished masses.

THE MUSCLING OF OPPOSITION PARTIES:
Leading opposition parties in the country can not all the experiencing internal crisis that seem irreconcilable. From PDP to Labour Party, SDP and ADC factional leaders are fighting the parties to a standstill. The courts of the land are delivering vague judgements that have left the issues of litigation unresolved. How do you explain a Supreme Court judgement on a matter that leaves all warring parties claiming victory. Indeed there is an unseen hand in the crisis of the major opposition parties that have left many to say that the APC want to drive Nigeria into a one party state. With almost 30 governors out of the 36 in the APC, the party looks home and dry in 2027. Ironically this will be the major undoing for the APC because it takes a level of abnormality and courage to say nonsense for a governor to justify why he has moved to the APC other than self preservation and hunger for power. Any governor who saw the abracadabra concocted in Edo State would conclude that there will be no credible elections if he is going up against an APC candidate. It is a major reason that has led to the bandwagon effect. But the impoverished masses believe it is better to confront their oppressor under one party than face them in different parties. Defecting the APC with over 30 governors and the president in 2027 is a much easier task than facing the enemies under different umbrella.

THE OBIDIENT MOVEMENT PARTY MEMBERSHIP:
In 2023, the Obidient Movement prided itself as a “partyless” group. They held that there were obidients in different political parties and only Peter Obi brought them to a common goal. This strategy did not deliver Obi in 2023. A simple requirement like polling units agents across all polling units in Nigeria could not be met by Labour Party who had many who were more concerned with immediate gains. The hawks and wolves in Labour Party made the campaign toxic. Obidients held no position in the Labour Party. The tide is changing. A prominent figure and Obidient like Aisha Yesufu declared that for the first time in her life she would be registering as a member of the ADC. That action is bound to trigger many obidients to joining the ADC. By 2027 general elections, the ADC may have registered more than 15 million card carrying members. What it will mean for the ADC is that it can win any election with the votes of its members. Imagine 10 million members of ADC arriving their different polling units at 6am waiting to queue and cast their votes, victory for the ADC would be sealed in a matter of 4 hours.

THE MORAL BURDEN OF INEC:
INEC has lost the confidence and trust of many Nigerians. The capacity to conduct a credible election seem to be eroding INEC by the day. The horrific display of INEC in Edo State left many to wonder the courage that INEC has to jettison its guidelines and deliver questionable elections. In 2023 INEC set aside majority of its guidelines to declare Tinubu winner. How do you justify Mahmood Yakubu’s announcement of a presidential election in the dead of night? INEC will enter into the 2027 election with a moral burden of distrust. The opposition parties do not believe in the capacity of INEC to deliver a credible elections and would go all out to secure their victories at the polling units. The ADC in 2027 does not look like it will rely on going to court but poses more like a party that will go for the spoils and match APC in its dark arts.